Bonnie Crombie leads Mississauga mayoral race in new poll

Bonnie Crombie has moved ahead in the final stretch of Mississauga’s mayoral race, leading a new Mainstreet Research poll released one week before the Oct. 26 municipal vote. The survey shows Crombie widening her edge over Mayor Carolyn Parrish as affordability and public safety dominate voter concerns.

Why it matters: - Bonnie Crombie’s lead gives her a stronger path to returning as Mississauga mayor just days before voters cast ballots. - The poll suggests the race remains competitive, but the top three candidates are separated by a relatively narrow margin. - Affordability, crime and senior services are the issues most likely to shape the outcome.

What happened: - Mainstreet Research’s latest Mississauga mayoral poll, conducted for Y Media and released Oct. 19, shows Crombie at 33.6 per cent among decided voters. - Ward 2 Councillor Alvin Tedjo is second at 28.4 per cent. - Incumbent Mayor Carolyn Parrish is third at 26.2 per cent. - Ward 7 Councillor Dipika Damerla receives 4.5 per cent. - Another 7.3 per cent chose another candidate. - The poll was released one week before Ontario’s Oct. 26 municipal election.

The details: - Crombie’s lead over Parrish is 7.4 points. - Mainstreet’s previous survey, completed Sept. 25, had Crombie at 30.4 per cent, Parrish at 27.6 per cent and Tedjo at 20.5 per cent. - Crombie’s support rose 3.2 points from the prior Mainstreet poll. - Her margin over Parrish more than doubled from 2.8 points to 7.4 points. - The new lead is larger than the poll’s margin of error. - Crombie also led a Liaison Strategies poll conducted Oct. 2 to 4 among 1,000 residents, with 30 per cent among decided and leaning voters. - In that Liaison survey, Parrish had 29 per cent and Tedjo had 26 per cent. - That survey found 48 per cent of respondents said Mississauga was headed in the wrong direction, while 28 per cent said it was on the right track. - Mainstreet President and CEO Quito Maggi said Crombie continues to lead, though narrowly, and said her stronger support among older voters “should give her the advantage on election day.” - Maggi added that undecided voters remain numerous and that the top three candidates are still close.

Between the lines: - Crombie’s rise lines up with voter frustration over cost pressures and city direction. - The polling suggests experience is resonating, especially if older voters continue to tilt toward Crombie. - Parrish remains within striking distance, so turnout and undecided voters could still matter.

What's next: - Voters will choose Mississauga’s next mayor on Monday, Oct. 26. - The city says voters may cast a ballot at any voting location in their ward. - The City of Mississauga reported 44,049 advance ballots from Oct. 6 to 11, a 57 per cent increase over 2022. - In the Mainstreet survey, 20.9 per cent of respondents said they had already voted and 70.3 per cent said they were certain to vote. - The full public poll report is available in PDF form the full poll report.

The details: - Affordability and cost of living ranked as the most important issue for 37.1 per cent of respondents. - Crime and safety followed at 14.2 per cent. - City services for seniors ranked third at 13.6 per cent. - Asked about the past two years, 46.2 per cent said the city had gotten worse on their top issue. - Only 5.8 per cent said it had gotten better. - Mainstreet surveyed 942 Mississauga adults on Oct. 17 and 18 using interactive voice response on landlines and cell phones. - Results were weighted by gender, age and education. - The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, and higher for subgroups. - Decided-voter figures exclude 18.5 per cent of respondents who were undecided.

The details: - Crombie’s Oct. 8 platform centers on a line-by-line review of City spending and an independent Auditor General. - The platform calls for City tax increases at or below inflation while protecting frontline services. - It would raise the annual property tax rebate for eligible low-income seniors to $1,000. - Crombie has pledged to return the mayor to the Peel Police Services Board. - The platform seeks a Line 2 subway extension into downtown Mississauga and opening the Hazel McCallion Line by the end of 2028. - It would cancel the proposed $2.5-billion redevelopment of the Living Arts Centre lands and redirect those resources to residents’ priorities. - The plan also includes targeted tax deferrals for tariff-affected businesses and payment of qualifying local suppliers within 15 days. - Crombie’s platform commits to buying Canadian and fast-tracking investments that protect and create Mississauga jobs. - It would raise annual recreation assistance to $500 for each eligible participant. - The platform also calls for stronger partnerships to prevent evictions, support food programs and advance affordable rental housing.

The bottom line: - Crombie enters the final week with momentum, a polling lead and a message built around affordability, safety and spending restraint.